Cash Flow Projections

A key GET FiT target is maximizing the Program’s impact, provided the available funding. Based on lessons learned thus far and assuming a stabilization of the EUR / USD exchange rate (see Chapter 4.1), the available funding would allow the program to achieve support up to some 170 MW of renewable power. Combined with timely implementation of the portfolio, this amount of installed capacity is expected to allow for full utilization of the funding commitments by 2023.

These projections (Figure 11) are, however, dependent upon, and thus sensitive to, some key assumptions concerning the evolution of the Program and its portfolio;
 

  • First and foremost, the success of the Program is highly dependent upon timely progress of the promoters in bringing their projects to commissioning. Delay on one or several projects will put the time-bound nature of the results and thus also disbursements at risk.
     
  • Second, the ability of the Program to fill its portfolio with the implied 170 MW of viable and mature projects will depend on the competitiveness and outcome of the RfP round 3. While a promising number of 18 hydropower bids have now been received (January 2015), only the next few months will show if the overall maturity of applicants allows for fulfilment of the portfolio with respect to original targets or available funds. 
     
  • Third, as discussed in Chapter 4.1, exchange rate fluctuations will have a significant impact on the exact amount of funding available to the Program and thus on the capacity (MW and GWh) that can be supported in the third and final RfP Round. Thus, although RfP Round 3 introduces a sufficient capacity of projects in terms of MW and GWh, there is no guarantee that GET FiT will be enabled to fully support in line with the original portfolio targets.   
     
  • Fourth, the final target for the third RFP with regards to MW and GWh is also dependent on developments related to Kikigati, among the largest project in the portfolio, which is experiencing significant “external” risks (see Chapter 3.1). If the project is not supported further under GET FiT, the portfolio is reduced by 16 MW and MEUR 9 may be reallocated to support additional projects in RfP Round 3. 
     
  • Finally, on the funding side, maintaining the necessary financial predictability and ensuring a certain degree of flexibility with regards to project commissioning, requires maintaining a good positive cash balance (i.e. funds readily available for the GET FiT Program’s account at any given time). This is particularly important when it comes to donor commitments in other currencies than EUR. The exchange rate fluctuation experienced over the last months have proven the importance of development partners disbursing their funds to KfW (where they are converted into EUR) at the point when contracts are signed. This ensures that commitments being made to developers by GET FiT are matched by actual funds received from donors.


Although the program is fully funded through the partner commitments, the Secretariat does not yet have exact schedules for future disbursement of committed funds from all donors to KfW. Hence, the projections for the later years of the program life are based on the assumption that funds will be disbursed to KfW before commitments to developers and consultants are made.  

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Figure 11 - Projections of cash flow and cumulative cash balance indicate that GET FiT with the involved parties will be able to maintain a positive, healthy cash balance until funds are exhausted by end of 2023. The high positive cash balance in early years is due to DFA signing with developers, requiring that funds are disbursed to the Programme by donors.


Notably, in the projections for the cumulative cash balance of the Program, funds are fully utilized by 2023, for which the final premium payments are expected.