Expected portfolio output
With six GET FiT power plants commissioned by the end of 2017, the total capacity added to the Ugandan grid by the Programme now totals 58.1 MW (20 MW bagasse, 20 MW solar and 18.1 MW hydro). This corresponds to a planned annual production of approximately 269 GWh. Thus, portfolio commissioning currently stands at 37 percent in terms of installed capacity and 35 percent on annual production.
Figure 5 below provides an overview of the total planned installed capacity of the portfolio and how it is distributed across the supported technologies. The overall planned capacity actually increased slightly in 2017 due to a design change in one of the hydropower plants, raising the total to 158.4 MW. This is equivalent to approximately 93 percent of the original Programme target of 170 MW. The difference between the planned and original targets is partly due to a reduction in the overall Programme funding in earlier years combined with a lower share of bagasse/biomass than originally anticipated. Nonetheless, adding an installed capacity of nearly 160 MW to the Ugandan electricity supply network is a significant achievement and truly reflects the successful impact of the GET FiT Programme.
Figure 5: GET FiT portfolio build up and original targets
Figure 6 below provides an illustration of the anticipated portfolio build-up with time. It is noted that although the majority of GET FiT supported projects are expected to reach commercial operation by the end of 2018 – the original Programme window – several projects are likely to overrun into 2019. One of the projects – the Kikagati SHP – is also not expected to achieve commercial operation until later in 2020 due to substantial delays.
To improve implementation oversight of the remaining projects and minimise the risk of further delays, GET FiT introduced several tools to more closely monitor progress and incentivise the Developers. For selected projects, this included increasing the frequency of supervision visits at the cost of the developer; undertaking unannounced site visits to check that developers were complying with Programme requirements; enforcing stops in construction where there were clear deficiencies in the developers’ capacity to plan and implement the projects safely; and imposing reductions in the overall subsidy amount allocated to the project where there was continued non-compliance with Programme requirements or poor performance. Finally, a penalty mechanism for delayed commissioning after 2018 has also been introduced to limit further delays across the portfolio.
Figure 6 - GET FiT implementation timeline