The GET FiT Monitoring and Evaluation framework monitors the results of the Programme through several quantitative indicators, which are collected from project developers and key sector stakeholders on a semiannual basis. The Programme’s monitoring and evaluation is structured in a logical framework (Logframe) outlining the relationship between targeted Outputs, Outcomes and Impacts and setting baselines, expected milestones and targets.
The Programme is still behind schedule on achieving the original capacity targets, which aimed at full commissioning of the RE portfolio by the end of 2018. This is mainly due to the many delays in bringing individual RE projects to financial close and construction start. However, after years of intensive efforts and a good number of projects (10 out of 17) now commissioned, the Programme is progressing well on most of the targeted results.
Due to a lower portfolio share of biomass projects than originally anticipated, and a significant reduction in Programme funding, the original capacity targets (170 MW installed and 830 GWh/year) of the portfolio will not be fully achieved. Other indicators that are directly linked to these capacity targets, such as private finance mobilised and displacement of thermal generation, may also be affected by the overall capacity reduction. The current GET FiT portfolio has a planned capacity of 158 MW and 765 GWh/year, of which more than half has now been commissioned.
On some indicators, such as job creation, the Programme is already exceeding original targets. An overview of the targeted Outputs, Outcomes and Impacts is provided in the overview below. The following section will address these goals in more depth, providing details and context on the development of the Programme.
Table 5 - Overview of Impact, Outcomes and Outputs
The Programme made good progress on a range of Programme monitoring indicators in 2018. Electricity generation picked up considerably with over 270 GWh delivered to the grid during the year, representing approximately 65 percent of the entire portfolio generation to date. This is still significantly lower than the expected annual generation of commissioned projects, due to commissioning of projects during 2018, and grid-related issues causing high deemed energy levels for certain projects. With ten projects now to produce a full year and others set for commissioning, overall portfolio generation is expected to substantially increase in 2019.
In terms of geographic and technological diversification, GET FiT is represented in most sub-regions of the country and supports three renewable energy technologies. While projects were received during the appraisal stage, Northern Uganda is the only region with no GET FiT project in the portfolio, while the rest of the portfolio has a strong presence in Western Uganda, but is also represented in Central, Eastern and South-Western parts of the country. The portfolio includes projects with three technologies – Solar PV, Hydro and Bagasse – and is thereby diversifying the Ugandan energy mix.
With an increasing level of energy generation, the Programme portfolio is contributing to reducing Uganda’s GHG emissions. According to UETCL, energy generation from the GET FiT portfolio is currently offsetting generation from the available grid connected thermal (fossil fuelled) power plants. However, due to the overall implementation delays for the portfolio, GET FiT is not yet able to offset all the thermal electricity
generation to the Ugandan grid. This is particularly due to an unusually high level of export from Uganda to Kenya in 2018, which has led to increased dispatch of the thermal generators. It will be exciting to see to what extent GET FiT can continue to offset thermal generation in 2019, particularly while awaiting commissioning of the new large hydropower plants in Uganda which should lead to further displacement of thermal energy generation.
The GET FiT portfolio has direct effects on the local economy and made a substantial contribution to local job-creation. This is represented by over 8,500 newly created jobs (FTE’s – Full Time Equivalent) in relation to the portfolio alone, by far exceeding the initial target.
The share of Ugandan employment is around 90 percent. Finally, GET FiT projects have raised over USD 450 million in investments for the portfolio – approximately
USD 160 million in private, and USD 190 million in public funding. Private financing represents a share of approximately 35 percent. All but one project has achieved financial close, and the Kikagati SHP expects to reach financial close in the first half of 2019.
An overview of all Output indicators is presented in Table 6.
Table 6 - Output Indicators
5 All Projects that have achieved financial close are included. MW of commissioned projects in brackets.
6 All Projects that have achieved financial close are included, based on their planned annual energy production. Actually delivered energy of commissioned projects are in brackets.
The outcomes address the influence of GET FiT at a higher sector level, namely on the private sector investment environment for renewable energy in Uganda, and improved financial stability of the energy sector. A third indicator on local grid stability has been excluded from the logframe in 2018.7
Currently four commercial banks are financing projects of the GET FiT portfolio, while the Kakira project debt is entirely financed through commercial debt. As further projects are restructuring debt in the future, it is expected that more commercial banks will become involved in the Ugandan energy sector.
The regulator has issued only one development permit in 2018; however, seven generation licences for renewable energy projects with capacities under 20 MW, including six hydropower projects and one bagasse project. As highlighted in the Output section, the process of issuing generation licences has seen certain improvements as well, with a substantial decrease in review time of applications.
While the power utility UETCL has paid all its invoices for delivered energy in 2018, four developers have reported defaults on payments for deemed energy claims. However, the respective invoices for deemed energy were approved by ERA and subsequently paid in early 2019. These defaults are not considered for the indicator since deemed energy claims are not approved for payment by UETCL, but by ERA through the base consumer tariff, which is reviewed to include deemed energy only once a year.
The Government is currently not subsidising any thermal generation, and the GWh purchased from thermal power stations is at circa 200 GWh, well below the target of 832 GWh in 2023. However, capacity payments remain part of a subsidy by the Government, which signifies that the country has not yet achieved fully cost-reflective retail tariffs.
An overview of the Outcome indicators is provided in Table 7.
Table 7 - Outcome Indicators
The Programme follows the impact statement “Uganda pursues a low carbon, climate resilient development path, resulting in growth, poverty reduction and climate change mitigation”.
Accordingly, the impact of the Programme is measured through three indicators, highlighted below. Due to the heavy reliance on the activities of key sector actors to reach the targets, the effects of GET FiT Uganda are limited to a certain extent, and subject to a time lag between GET FiT activities and observable results at a higher sector level.
Generally, a positive development on grid-related CO2 emissions can be reported. Increased energy generation from the GET FiT portfolio led to reduced dispatch of fossil fuelled power plants in 2018. The indicator is currently exceeding the target set for 2023. While this can largely be credited to renewable energy supplied from GET FiT projects, it is also partly due to a lower national electricity demand than originally projected.
The country has seen improvements in electrification rate and electricity consumption per capita. An increase to 22 % up from 20 % in 2017 has been reported in 2018. Similarly, the electricity consumption increased by circa 12 % to 101 kWh per capita, compared to 90 kWh per capita in 2017.
Table 8 provides an overview of the Impact indicator developments in 2018.
Table 8 - Impact Indicators
7The indicators for Outcome 3 – Improved local grid stability have become inadequate in monitoring Programme performance due to various sector developments, particularly due to the many changes in regional and national grid infrastructure and particular network solutions for GET FiT projects. Following discussions regarding the data availability, validity and attribution (as Programme results), it was decided to remove both indicators for Outcome 3 (voltage variations and load loss at local substations) from the logframe. Notably, the TA provided by DFID via GET FiT on compliance monitoring is aimed at making grid performance data in Uganda more precise and accessible. Therefore, Outcome 3 might be re-introduced at a later stage.